The re-election of Donald Trump as US president and the associated announcements, some of which are drastic, pose major challenges for German SMEs. While the global world order is being torn apart by agreements between Trump and Putin to end the war in Ukraine and the relativization of NATO's alliance commitments by his “vice president,” the economic consequences of planned or already implemented measures for German SMEs are coming into sharper focus. Despite all the justified fears, enomyc author Jan-Ulrik Holsten is convinced that those who set the right course now will not only be able to avert damage, but also focus on new opportunities.
Donald Trump, Mr. “Predictably unpredictable,” is back in the White House. The global political and economic impact of Trump's second term is hitting Germany at a time when many companies are already operating at their limits due to inflationary pressure, rising energy costs, and geopolitical uncertainty. The US president's America First policy is exacerbating an already tense climate.
German SMEs are feeling the effects most acutely. They are facing questions that threaten their very existence:
- Will global sales markets remain accessible?
- How will potential new trade barriers and tighter investment controls affect them?
- What consequences will the political and economic measures already decided or announced by the Trump administration have?
What is at stake is nothing less than a new world order in which the economic interests of the US are to be enforced bluntly and with drastic means. The effects go far beyond pure tariff policy. Whether it's energy supply, technological progress, or financial transactions, new restrictions and risks for German SMEs are looming in almost all key areas. Many owners, board members, and managing directors are rightly feeling uncertain. They are wondering what they can do to protect their companies and hold their own in an increasingly unpredictable global market situation.
What measures companies can expect
During his first term in office, Donald Trump not only polarized the political landscape with his rhetoric, but also implemented numerous economic policies aimed at unilaterally strengthening the US economy. Upon taking office for a second term in January 2025, he announced that he would significantly intensify this course. Eight of the announced plans in particular could prove particularly detrimental to individual companies and the German economy as a whole.
- Drastic increase in import duties on industrial goods
The US government wants to make imports of steel, aluminum, machinery, and automobiles—especially from the EU—more expensive by significantly raising customs duties. For German SMEs, this will mean rising costs and more difficult market conditions because their products will be less competitive in terms of price on the US market.
- Tighter export controls for high-tech goods
The US administration is also tightening restrictions on the export of technology products, particularly components for medical technology, electronics, and IT. This will lead to lengthy approval procedures and could make it more difficult to access US semiconductors, software, and patents.
- Restrictions on US investment in Europe
New regulatory hurdles and political “recommendations” are intended to discourage US investors from investing in European – and thus also German – companies. The aim is to keep capital in the US and strengthen the international competitive position of US players.
- Stricter rules for awarding US government contracts
In line with the “Buy American” motto, public contracts in the US are increasingly being awarded to US companies. German companies or their US subsidiaries must expect additional requirements, which will make access to the US government market significantly more difficult.
- Expansion of subsidies for US industrial sectors
Whether automotive, aviation or high-tech, numerous industries are receiving generous subsidies to further expand their production base in the US. For German SMEs, this means increasing competitive pressure from the US and the potential loss of their own customers to the US market.
- Restrictions on energy exports
“Drill baby, drill!” will not only boost domestic production. It is already foreseeable that US exports of shale gas, oil, and critical minerals to certain countries could be restricted, posing risks to Germany's energy supply.
- Stricter regulation of technology transfer
“Whoever saves their country breaks no law!” – Following this credo, it seems more than likely that the US government will further restrict technology transfers abroad on the grounds of national security. This would make research and development cooperation between German and US SMEs particularly difficult.
- Tighter border and entry controls
“What is our country if a judge can stop a Homeland Security ‘travel ban’?” Foreign employees of German companies working in the US in particular must expect more difficult visa processes. This affects teams of experts from IT, mechanical engineering, and engineering.
The points mentioned above are just a taste of what can be expected in the coming months. They illustrate how massively the Trump administration can and will intervene in economic policy processes.
What are the consequences for small and medium-sized enterprises?
The interventions by the US government described above give an idea of the risks facing German companies. There are cross-sector issues and others that particularly affect individual sectors. Across all sectors, access to resources and sales markets is under threat, as increasingly complex export controls and sanctions can severely disrupt supply chains. In addition, costs are rising and margins are falling because the administrative and financial burden of trading with the US is increasing. Many companies are also experiencing a high degree of planning uncertainty because further measures are often announced overnight and it is becoming increasingly difficult to make reliable forecasts about future market developments. All of this often leads to the postponement or even cancellation of important investment projects. In such a situation, overcapacity inevitably arises, which often results in job cuts – and puts additional strain on innovation and motivation within the company.
Individual industries are particularly hard hit by the US measures. The automotive industry must expect even stricter localization requirements, while healthcare and medical technology companies are grappling with tighter export control regulations. Among plant and machinery manufacturers, investment projects in the US are failing or can only be realized under strict conditions. Companies in the metal processing industry are already finding it difficult to procure critical raw materials reliably and at predictable prices, which is reflected not only in rising purchase prices but also, in some cases, in supply bottlenecks. The technology and hi-tech sector is suffering from the battle over patents and IT standards, while in the energy and renewables sector, the massive expansion of fossil fuels in the US is increasing market pressure on European suppliers. And even in the consumer goods and retail sector, uncertainty is also affecting smaller SMEs as US retailers increasingly opt for American suppliers and online distribution channels are subject to stricter regulations.
But these developments are also serious for the German economy as a whole, as they lead to falling sales, higher costs, and tighter cash flows. Against this backdrop, German industry and business associations are already calling for an active counterstrategies at the political level. However, experience shows that the political process often takes a long time. SMEs that want to secure their competitiveness would therefore be better off taking action themselves. How well is your company prepared for geopolitical risks? Trade barriers, supply bottlenecks, investment uncertainty – in times of increasing global instability, clear strategies are needed to secure your market position. In a non-binding initial consultation, our expert Jan Ulrik Holsten will show you what concrete measures medium-sized companies can take now to become more resilient – and to seize opportunities where others only see risks.
About the author
Jan Ulrik Holsten is a partner at enomyc, where he is responsible for sales and marketing. He is responsible for comprehensive turnaround and value enhancement projects as a consultant and interim manager. This article highlights a key solution approach and consulting portfolio that has proven to be a valuable lever for improving profitability and increasing competitiveness. Jan Ulrik Holsten also focuses on corporate profit improvement and working capital management. You can find out more about Jan Ulrik Holsten here.
